What Lipsticks, Horror Films, and Frozen Pizza Reveal About the Economy

For someone who has always been inclined towards creative fields, delving into economic conversations has been an unexpected but intriguing shift. Recently, my fascination has revolved around “Recession”

Recession is a topic that has been widely discussed, especially with the market being so volatile. But what piques my interest are the unconventional indicators that hint at economic downturns — ranging from beauty products to pop culture phenomena and food choices. In this article, I explore some of these intriguing, albeit unscientific, recession indicators.

The Lipstick Index: Beauty in Tough Times 

The creation of the Lipstick Index is widely attributed to Leonard Lauder, the heir to the Estée Lauder cosmetics empire. During the US recession of 2001, Lauder noticed that lipstick sales were rising instead of falling. He theorized that when big-ticket spending is curbed, consumers turn to affordable luxuries like lipstick.

What makes the Lipstick Index particularly compelling is it's counterintuitive nature. While overall retail spending might decline, sales of small, indulgent items like lipstick often spike. It’s a subtle form of retail therapy — a way for cash-strapped consumers to indulge without breaking the bank. During the 2008 recession, brands like Estée Lauder and MAC Cosmetics reported increased sales as consumers gravitated towards small indulgences. This trend persisted through the COVID-19 pandemic, where lipstick sales remained resilient despite other sectors taking a hit. The phenomenon underscores how beauty products, though seemingly frivolous, can act as a barometer for consumer sentiment in economically strained times.

Rise of the Dracula Index: Fear as a Cultural Indicator 

In times of economic instability, the horror genre, particularly vampire movies, has historically gained traction. During the Great Depression, classic horror films like Dracula and Frankenstein became cultural touchstones.

Similarly, the 1970s — marked by the oil crisis and stagflation — saw a resurgence in horror with The Exorcist and Jaws. Fast forward to the 2008 financial crisis, the Twilight series and True Blood dominated entertainment, reflecting societal anxieties about exploitation, greed, and unchecked consumption.

Vampires, as parasitic figures, embody fears of exploitation and unrestrained greed — themes that resonate during economic downturns. Their immortality and insatiable hunger mirror the insidious nature of financial crises, a metaphor that continues to surface as modern gothic horror films gain popularity amidst current economic uncertainty. The resurgence of vampire-centric content in recent years, such as the Nosferatu reboot, not only taps into a fascination with the undead but also underscores societal fears of unchecked power and consumption — themes eerily reflective of financial instability.

Frozen Pizza Index: Dining In During Downturns 

What people eat during economic downturns reveals much about spending habits. During the COVID-19 pandemic, frozen pizza sales soared, reaching $6.6 billion in 2020 — a $1 billion jump from 2019.

Interestingly, it’s not just budget brands that benefit. Premium frozen pizza lines like DiGiorno, California Pizza Kitchen, and Amy’s Organic also reported significant sales growth. This trend highlights how consumers may forgo dining out but still seek indulgence at home, opting for higher-end frozen foods as a compromise. The frozen pizza phenomenon underscores how even during financially strained times, consumers prioritize small comforts that offer a semblance of normalcy.

The 2008 recession saw similar trends, with frozen pizza emerging as a recession staple. According to industry reports, sales of premium frozen pizza brands spiked as consumers sought cost-effective ways to recreate the restaurant experience at home. This behavior suggests that in times of economic uncertainty, people may forgo big expenses but will still seek out small, affordable luxuries that provide a sense of comfort and indulgence.

The Hemline Index: When Fashion Reflects Financial Sentiment 

The Hemline Index, a theory proposed in the 1920s, suggests that skirt lengths rise during economic booms and drop during recessions. The rationale? Shorter hemlines convey optimism and exuberance, while longer skirts signify conservatism and caution.

In the 1920s, during the economic boom, hemlines rose significantly, with the flapper style defining the era. However, as the Great Depression set in, skirts lengthened, reflecting the somber mood of the time. Similarly, during the 2008 financial crisis, midi and maxi skirts dominated the runways, aligning with the global economic downturn.

This theory resurfaced in the 1970s during the oil crisis, where midi and maxi lengths became prevalent. More recently, as the fashion world leans towards more conservative silhouettes amidst economic uncertainty, one can’t help but wonder if the Hemline Index is once again proving its relevance. It serves as a fascinating, albeit unscientific, reflection of how fashion mirrors financial sentiment, using fabric length as a metaphor for economic mood.

Pop Music Index: The Soundtrack of Economic Sentiment 

Pop music’s evolution also mirrors economic conditions, often acting as a reflection of society's emotional state. During periods of prosperity, pop music tends to be upbeat, filled with celebratory themes, and offers escapism through catchy hooks and light-hearted lyrics. For example, in the 1990s, a time of economic expansion and optimism, pop music was dominated by bubblegum pop and feel-good anthems, with artists like Britney Spears, Backstreet Boys, and N*SYNC topping the charts.

Conversely, during times of economic hardship, pop music often takes on a darker, more introspective tone. The music of the 1970s, during the oil crisis and stagflation, featured socially conscious themes and dissatisfaction, with artists like The Clash and The Sex Pistols rising to prominence. Similarly, during the Great Recession of 2008, pop music saw a surge in introspective and often melancholic themes, with artists like Lady Gaga, Beyoncé, and Adele exploring deeper emotional landscapes and dealing with the darker realities of life.

The connection between pop music and economic cycles is subtle but can be seen in the changing styles, themes, and public reception to the music during these times. Music, in many ways, serves as a mirror to society’s collective psyche, offering insight into how individuals and cultures process their circumstances — whether times are good or bad.

Conclusion: The Cultural Reflection of Economic Uncertainty 

While none of these theories — the Lipstick Index, Pop Music, Dracula Index, Frozen Pizza Index, or Hemline Index— are scientifically proven to predict economic recessions, they serve as cultural indicators, reflecting our society's subconscious reactions to economic conditions. From small luxuries like lipstick to the rise in vampire films during times of financial instability, these cultural trends often give us a unique insight into the emotional state of society during uncertain times.